China, Academic: Hard Road to Democracy, Roskin

Tian' an Men Square security

Hard Road to Democracy is Roskin's take on a sub topic of comparative politics, among a subset of countries. Its focus is somewhat narrow but he gets the bull's-eye for me in terms of my interest in the politics of China.

The title pretty much gives away his focus: how does a country become democratic? Well, obviously, there are many countries that have accomplished the transition - most of them in Europe and North America. Their transition is interesting, but in many respects idiosyncratic and hence not all that meaningful in understanding the process. They were the easy cases. In this book Roskin focuses on more difficult cases, democratization in the ‘Developing World’. He looks at Iran, South Africa, Brazil and China.

Hong Kong protest

In doing so, he examines the question I think is most interesting when considering the future of China. The simple question: “Is Hong Kong the future of China or China, the future of Hong Kong?” The complex question is whether economic liberalization will fuel demand for political liberalization. Does capitalism beget democracy? Roskin examines the record and then applies that to current Chinese trends.

His conclusion? The outcome is still up in the air. There are dramatic tensions at play. The Chinese leadership’s development of Shanghai as a financial center undermines Hong Kong's economic power. Can a weaker Hong Kong retain its liberty? There are signs it may not. At the same time, rising middle-class prosperity has been the precursor of pressure to democratize elsewhere (South Korea, Taiwan) and China is experiencing unprecedented growth in that class. How will it resolve? Stay tuned.